The "Trump Bump" continued in December as the S&P 500 advanced 2% and the Russell 2000 advanced 2.8%. Value stocks held the edge over growth stocks while small, mid and large stocks all performed similarly. 2016’s conclusion allows us to take a look back at the year’s trends while also looking ahead to 2017. Value stocks, consistent with our positioning, outperformed Growth stocks for the year across all sized companies while small and mid-cap stocks held a sizeable return advantage over large-caps. Coming off a five-year large-cap biased interval, this likely marks a shift to a period of small-cap outperformance.
As evidenced by betting markets and poll aggregators like Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model, the stock market priced in a win for Hillary Clinton ahead of yesterday’s election. Donald Trump’s victory certainly caught investors off guard. While Trump is a bit of a wild card, bringing economic and political uncertainty into the equation, the end of the election brings a level of stability to financial markets.
S&P 500 futures initially tumbled as much as 5% late Tuesday night, triggering a trading halt, but when the market opened Wednesday morning, investors had digested the news and the market actually rallied throughout the day. The market fear gauge, VIX, which breached 20 ahead of the election, is down to 14 this morning.
As we’ve previously pointed out, elections historically have very little effect on the stock market – the trend prior to the election continues after the election. Initial evidence appears to again prove this to be true.
We often receive feedback and questions about current events in the stock market. Recently, popular topics are our SSR strategy positioning, the election and the looming December interest rate hike decision. Below is a Q&A addressing each topic.
Q: Small-cap stocks slightly outperformed large-caps in September and have shown some momentum recently. Why are you still weighted towards large-caps?
Burney Company Chairman and Founder Jack Burney and President Lowell Pratt Jr., CFA both have extensive experience investing in equities, the former founding the company over 40 years ago and the latter with 30 years of experience. From time-to-time, we share their conversations on the stock market and investing. Below are excerpts from a recent conversation regarding Value vs. Growth stocks: